how did the tropical cyclone impact the economy of florence

In Sect. 2008; Mendelsohn etal. Princeton University Press, Princeton, Book 2017). J Infrastruct Syst 7(1):112, Hallegatte S, Przyluski V (2010) The economics of natural disasters: concepts and methods. Appendix A.3 provides a more detailed description of the composition of the individual ISIC categories. The absolute size of this effect is approximately more than 2.5 times the size of the coefficient in the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sector aggregate. Rev Environ Econ Policy 7(2):181198, Aznar-Siguan G, Bresch DN (2019) CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 10(2):166178, Munich R (2018) NatCatSERVICERelevant natural loss events worldwide 19802018. This finding clearly opposes the build-back-better hypothesis as well as the recovery to trend hypothesis. As tropical cyclones are exogenous to sectoral economic growth, the greatest threat to causal identification could arise by omitting important climatic variables that are correlated with tropical cyclones (Auffhammer etal. With this paper, I close this research gap by using an InputOutput panel data set to analyze potential sectoral interactions after the occurrence of a tropical cyclone. Power cables and telephone lines come down, crops are ruined, and water and sewage supplies are affected. Technical report, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA), World Bank (2010) Natural hazards, unnatural disasters: the economics of effective prevention: overview. This assumption is relaxed in further specifications by allowing more flexible country-specific trends (e.g., squared). However, these growth rates are simply not high enough to reach the pre-disaster growth path. The remaining variables are defined as in Eq. In: Bobrowsky PT (ed) Encyclopedia of natural hazards. Perhaps the most challenging task is to identify critical sectors that may be responsible for widespread spillover effects leading to substantial modifications in other sectors production input schemes. These empirical studies all share that they use firm-level data to draw conclusions on upstream and downstream production disruptions. Google Scholar, Albala-Bertrand J-M (1993) Natural disaster situations and growth: a macro-economic model for sudden disaster impacts. J Eur Econ Assoc 18(6):33373375, Forster J, Schuhmann PW, Lake IR, Gill JA (2012) The influence of hurricane risk on tourist destination choice in the Caribbean. 1 but only for values above 92 km/h. Am Econ J Appl Econ 8(2):123153, Guha-Sapir D, CRED (2020) EM-DAT: the emergency events database. By calculating the annual sectoral GDP per capita growth rate, I lose the first year of observation of the panel. Bakkensen LA, Park D-SR, Sarkar RSR (2018) Climate costs of tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain. The coefficients are interpreted by a one standard deviation increase in tropical cyclone damage (above zero).Footnote 24 For example, due to a standard deviation increase of tropical cyclone damage, the manufacturing sectors use -0.66% less input from the construction sector aggregate relative to the average InputOutput coefficient (0.0045) to produce one unit of output. Abstract. Other studies identify negative effects that are only significant in the short run but are insignificant in the long run (Strobl 2012; Bertinelli and Strobl 2013; Elliott etal. How did the Tropical Cyclone Florence impact the people communities? The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. The country fixed effects \(\theta _i\) control for unobservable time-invariant country-specific effects, such as culture, institutional background, and geographic location. However, the country fixed effects partly control for this concern. The wind speed drops with distance to the center of the hurricane and as soon as it makes landfall. (2012) find no significant for the service sector.Footnote 21 Likely reason for this downturn could be less (domestic and international) touristic income for the restaurant and hotel sectors (Hsiang 2010; Lenzen etal. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Appendix A.6 first shows the results of the randomization tests, followed by coefficient plots that summarize the remaining specifications. The analysis of the past influences of tropical cyclone damage demonstrates that the sectoral growth response following a tropical cyclone is a complex undertaking. Their destructiveness has three sources: damaging winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfalls. This is not surprising since the manufacturing (D) sector needs a lot of input materials from other sectors (Sieg etal. It would be tedious to show \(26\,\times \,26\) regression models, Fig. These regions include East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change will lead to fewer tropical cyclones overall. Additionally, the GTAP database is not freely available and only covers a few years. WMO continues to monitor the "remarkable" tropical storm, which has cut a destructive path across . Panel (a) displays the percentage of agricultural land, whereas (b) shows the distribution of population in Australia in 2008. In contrast, for the agricultural sector, it would be misleading to take a nighttime light or a population weight, since these areas have a rather low population density. Additionally, it seems that the fishing sector is responsible for the negative supply shock in the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sector aggregate. 7), we can only see significant changes in one quarter of all InputOutput connections, while in model 4 for the direct costs, only two sector aggregates are negatively affected. Section4 presents the main results as well as robustness checks. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Sect. The results of the InputOutput analysis, summarized in Appendix A.6.2, are a little less robust. Springer, Dordrecht and New York, p 940, Lenzen M, Kanemoto K, Moran D, Geschke A (2012) Mapping the structure of the world economy. Stagnant water can cause the spread of disease, and transportation or communication infrastructure may have been destroyed, hampering clean-up and rescue efforts. This is an improvement in comparison to Hsiang (2010) who only focuses on 26 Caribbean countries, which are highly exposed but only account for 11% of global GDP in 2015 (United Nations Statistical Division 2015c). The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors, Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change, https://github.com/davidnbresch/climada/blob/master/docs/climada_manual.pdf, https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html, https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s352601.html, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Metadata/Glossary#, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/assets/pdf/methodology.pdf, http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Impacts of tropical storms Buildings and bridges can be destroyed, people can get into difficulties in the water, and roads and railways can become damaged. Generally speaking, the proposed models offer a simple but strong way for causal interpretation of the impact of tropical cyclones on sectoral growth. Other studies analyze the disasters impact on single sectors, such as the agricultural (Blanc and Strobl 2016; Mohan 2017) or the manufacturing sector (Bulte etal. In the years following the tropical cyclone, the efforts should be broadened to support the mining, and utilities, and the transport, storage, and communication sectors. Each year the impacts of tropical cyclones and other weather, climate and water extremes around the Earth give rise to multiple casualties and significant damage to property and infrastructure, with adverse economic consequences for communities that can persist for many years. Exposed countries are defined as having at least one positive damage observation over the sample period. In terms of total losses, this decrease results in a mean yearly loss of USD \(-\,16.7\) billion (measured in constant 2005 USD) for the sample average (USD 5.63 billion). The variables are measured in constant 2005 USD. This change can be regarded as reconstruction efforts, which is also reflected in the relatively rapid recovery of the agricultural sector aggregate in Fig. However, one disadvantage of the EORA26 data set is that parts of the data are estimated and not measured. 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. During 5 February, a tropical low was located south of Bali, Indonesia. Stata J 17(3):630651, Holland GJ (1980) An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Details of How did the tropical cyclone eloise impact the environment? How do tropical storms affect people and the environment? Within the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors, the negative effects become less pronounced with a zero effect being present after fouryears, while the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectoral aggregate experiences a persistent negative growth even after 20years. 2016). Cumulative lagged influence of tropical cyclone damage on sectoral GDP growth (20years). Second and most importantly, I contribute to the literature on InputOutput analysis of natural disasters. Tropical cyclones are large, cyclonically rotating wind systems that form over tropical or sub-tropical oceans and are mostly concentrated on months in summer or early autumn in both hemispheres (Korty 2013). J Econ Geogra 20(3):857877, NHC (2016) National hurricane center forecast verification. One major effort of this paper is to generate a new meaningful sectoral damage variable on a country-year level. Tables 3 and 4 in Appendix A.5 show the main descriptive statistics for all variables used in this study. Eastern North Carolina is prone to flooding associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes Fran in 1996 and Matthew in 2016) and it is likely that an event similar to the Hurricane Florence . Moreover, for the vast majority of sectors, the indirect effects do not last longer than oneyear. However, time-delayed effects must also be taken into account since some damage, such as supply-chain interruptions or demand-sided impacts, will only be visible after a certain time lag (Kousky 2014; Botzen etal.

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